{"id":9127,"date":"2024-02-17T08:28:25","date_gmt":"2024-02-17T13:28:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spaceandplanetarynewswire.com\/?p=9127"},"modified":"2024-02-20T08:30:55","modified_gmt":"2024-02-20T13:30:55","slug":"is-russia-looking-to-put-nukes-in-space-doing-so-would-undermine-global-stability-and-ignite-an-anti-satellite-arms-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spaceandplanetarynewswire.com\/?p=9127","title":{"rendered":"Is Russia Looking to Put Nukes in Space? Doing So Would Undermine Global Stability and Ignite an Anti-Satellite Arms Race"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Fresh U.S. intelligence<\/a> circulating in Congress reportedly indicates that Russia is developing an anti-satellite<\/a> weapon in space with a nuclear component<\/a>.<\/p>\n

News reports speculating about what the weapon could be abounded after Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio, chair of the House Intelligence Committee, released a cryptic but alarming statement<\/a> on Feb. 14, 2024, regarding the information, which he framed as a \u201cserious national security threat.\u201d Some sources suggested a nuclear weapon<\/a>. Others suspect a weapon that is nuclear-powered<\/a> but not a nuclear warhead.<\/p>\n

The White House confirmed<\/a> the following day that the Russian system under development is a space-based anti-satellite weapon and that if it were deployed, it would violate the 1967 Outer Space Treaty<\/a>, which bans weapons of mass destruction in space. The Kremlin responded by dismissing the reports<\/a> as a \u201cmalicious fabrication.\u201d<\/p>\n

While the exact weapon remains unknown to the public, the events raise the specter of nuclear weapons in space at a tense time. Relations between the United States and Russia are at their lowest in decades, and Russia is currently waging a war of aggression in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

As a scholar of nuclear strategy<\/a>, I know the U.S. reports come at a time when the nuclear world order is shifting significantly. China<\/a> and others<\/a> are expanding<\/a> and modernizing<\/a> their arsenals. Iran<\/a> is close<\/a> to being able to produce a nuclear weapon<\/a>. Other countries<\/a> may eventually want their own<\/a> nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

At the same time, several countries<\/a> are developing new weapons<\/a> to attack targets in space. This list includes Russia<\/a>, the U.S.<\/a>, China<\/a> and India<\/a>, although none currently field weapons in space.<\/p>\n

Cold War schemes<\/strong><\/p>\n

The recent revelations about Russian space weapons raise the specter that countries may decide to deploy nuclear weapons in space at some point. Some have tried before.<\/p>\n

The U.S.<\/a> and Soviet Union<\/a> researched<\/a> nuclear detonations in space during the Cold War. In the late 1960s, the Soviets tested a missile that could be placed in low Earth orbit<\/a> and be capable of coming out of orbit and carrying a nuclear warhead<\/a> to Earth.<\/p>\n

\"A
Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during his visit to the Vostochny cosmodrome on April 12, 2022.<\/span>
\nYevgeny Biyatov\/Sputnik\/AFP via Getty Images<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Neither country placed nuclear weapons in space permanently. Both were parties to the Outer Space Treaty and the 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty<\/a>, which outlawed nuclear detonations in space. Moscow and Washington negotiated these treaties to contain the Cold War arms race.<\/p>\n

These treaties constrained behavior in the late Cold War. However, Russian violations<\/a> of nuclear arms control treaties, as well as U.S.<\/a> and Russian<\/a> withdrawal<\/a> from various treaties<\/a> since 2002<\/a>, suggest they may not in the future.<\/p>\n

Nukes in space<\/strong><\/p>\n

But why would a country want space nukes? There are a few reasons.<\/p>\n

Countries could point space-based nuclear weapons toward Earth. In theory, weapons from space could avoid early detection radars and missile defenses. However, there are significant disadvantages to firing nuclear weapons directly from space<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Placing weapons in space to strike targets on Earth may have defensive or offensive motivations. Weapons that evade missile defenses might ensure nuclear deterrence. This is a defensive strategy intended to prevent aggression against the state that placed them in space.<\/p>\n

Alternatively, these weapons may help a country achieve a first-strike capability. A first strike requires the ability to destroy enough of an adversary\u2019s nuclear weapons \u2013 or the nuclear command, control and communications systems necessary to manage them \u2013 to prevent nuclear retaliation.<\/p>\n

Countries could point space-based weapons toward other regions of space, like the Russian weapon under development<\/a>. This conjures images of nuclear weapons striking asteroids to defend Earth<\/a> from a collision.<\/p>\n

Satellite killers<\/strong><\/p>\n

The reality is less dramatic but no less worrisome. The most likely use would be to destroy an enemy\u2019s military satellites. Damaging navigation satellites would hinder an adversary\u2019s ability to fight a war. Both precision-strike<\/a> weapons and ground-based forces<\/a> rely on satellite constellations like GPS or the Russian GLONASS<\/a> system to find and reach targets.<\/p>\n

Countries may also want the ability to destroy an enemy\u2019s space weapons, including space-based missile defenses. While no country has deployed these weapons yet, leaders may fear future capabilities and deploy space weapons first to hedge against this threat.<\/p>\n

Most dangerously, these weapons could destroy or damage satellites critical<\/a> to an enemy\u2019s nuclear command, control and communications system<\/a>, including early warning satellites that track missile launches and communication satellites that relay military orders.<\/p>\n